Author Archives: Euan Ritchie

About Euan Ritchie

I apply ecological theory with good doses of field work to seek solutions to the challenges of conserving biodiversity.

Evaluation of camera placement for detection of free-ranging carnivores; implications for assessing population changes

Authors: Hayley M Geyle, Michael Stevens, Ryan Duffy, Leanne Greenwood, Dale G Nimmo, Derek Sandow, Ben Thomas, John White, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Ecological Solutions and Evidence

Abstract

Introduced carnivores are often cryptic, making it difficult to quantify their presence in ecosystems, and assess how this varies in relation to management interventions. Survey design should thus seek to improve detectability and maximize statistical power to ensure sound inference regarding carnivore population trends. Roads may facilitate carnivore movements, possibly leading to high detectability. Therefore, targeting roads may improve inferences about carnivore populations.

We assessed our ability to monitor feral cats Felis catus and red foxes Vulpes vulpes on‐ and off‐road, with explicit consideration of the location of monitoring sites on our ability to detect population changes. We also assessed whether there was evidence of spatial or temporal interaction between these species that might influence their road‐use.

Surveys were conducted in a conservation reserve in south‐eastern Australia between 2016 and 2018. At each of 30 sites, we deployed two motion‐sensor cameras, one on‐road, and the other off‐road. Using occupancy models, we estimated cat and fox occupancy and detectability, and conducted a power analysis to assess our ability to detect declines in occupancy under three monitoring regimes (efforts targeted equally on‐ and off‐road, efforts targeted entirely off‐road and efforts targeted entirely on‐road).

On average, on‐road detectability was seven times higher for cats and three times higher for foxes. Targeting survey effort on‐road yielded the greatest power for detecting declines in both species, but our ability to detect smaller declines decreased with decreasing initial occupancy probability. No level of decline was detectable for cats when survey efforts were targeted off‐road, while only large declines (>50%) were detectable for foxes (assuming high initial occupancy probabilities). We found little evidence of spatial or temporal segregation, suggesting limited avoidance or suppression between the two species within this landscape.

Our results suggest that targeting monitoring on roads may be an effective approach for detecting declines in introduced carnivore populations, particularly following management intervention (e.g. lethal control), and in the face of resource limitations. We provide a framework that can help assist land managers to make informed decisions, which balance monitoring efforts and resource constraints with sufficient statistical power to assess management objectives.

Geyle HM, Stevens M, Duffy R, Greenwood L, Nimmo DG, Sandow D, Thomas B, White J, Ritchie EG (2020) Evaluation of camera placement for detection of free‐ranging carnivores; implications for assessing population changes. Ecological Solutions and Evidence PDF DOI

Run rabbit run: spotted-tailed quoll diet reveals invasive prey is top of the menu

Authors: Grant D Linley, Annette Rypalski, Georgeanna Story, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Australian Mammalogy

Abstract

Information about the ecological functional roles of native predators may help inform the conservation of wildlife and pest management.

If predators show preferences for certain prey, such as invasive species, this could potentially be used as a conservation tool to help restore degraded (e.g. overgrazed) ecosystems via the reintroduction of native predators and suppression of exotic prey (e.g. introduced herbivores).

The diet of spotted-tailed quolls was studied in a fenced reserve in south-eastern Australia where native mammals have been reintroduced, foxes and cats removed, but invasive European rabbits still persist.

A total of 80 scats were collected over 12 months and analysis of macroscopic prey remains was conducted to determine diet.

Rabbits were by far the most commonly consumed prey species by volume (~76%) and frequency (~60%), followed by brushtail possums (~11% for both volume and frequency), and other small and medium-sized native mammals in much smaller amounts. Quoll scat analysis revealed 10 mammal species in total, eight of which were native. Bird, reptile and invertebrate remains were uncommon in quoll scats.

This suggests that spotted-tailed quolls may show a preference for preying on invasive European rabbits in certain contexts, and this could potentially be used as part of quoll reintroductions to aid rabbit population suppression and ecosystem restoration.

Linley GD, Rypalski A, Story G, Ritchie EG (2020) Run rabbit run: spotted-tailed quoll diet reveals invasive prey is top of the menu. Australian Mammalogy PDF DOI

Living with the enemy: a threatened prey species coexisting with feral cats on a fox-free island

Authors: Vivianna Miritis, Anthony R Rendall, Tim S Doherty, Amy L Coetsee, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Wildlife Research

Abstract

Context

Feral domestic cats (Felis catus) have contributed to substantial loss of Australian wildlife, particularly small- and medium-sized terrestrial mammals. However, mitigating cat impacts remains challenging.

Understanding the factors that facilitate coexistence between native prey and their alien predators could aid better pest management and conservation actions.

Aims

We estimated feral cat density, examined the impact of habitat cover on long-nosed potoroos (Potorous tridactylus tridactylus), and assessed the spatial and temporal interactions between cats and potoroos in the ‘Bluegums’ area of French Island, south-eastern Australia.

Materials and methods

We operated 31 camera stations across Bluegums for 99 consecutive nights in each of winter 2018 and summer 2018/19. We used a spatially explicit capture–recapture model to estimate cat density, and two-species single-season occupancy models to assess spatial co-occurrence of cats and potoroos.

We assessed the influence of vegetation cover and cat activity on potoroo activity by using a dynamic occupancy model. We also used image timestamps to describe and compare the temporal activities of the two species.

Key results

Bluegums had a density of 0.77 cats per km² across both seasons, although this is a conservative estimate because of the presence of unidentified cats.

Cats and long-nosed potoroos were detected at 94% and 77% of camera stations, respectively.

Long-nosed potoroo detectability was higher in denser vegetation and this pattern was stronger at sites with high cat activity.

Cats and potoroos overlapped in their temporal activity, but their peak activity times differed.

Conclusions

Feral cat density at Bluegums, French Island, is higher than has been reported for mainland Australian sites, but generally lower than in other islands.

Long-nosed potoroos were positively associated with cats, potentially indicating cats tracking potoroos as prey or other prey species that co-occur with potoroos.

Temporal activity of each species differed, and potoroos sought more complex habitat, highlighting possible mechanisms potoroos may use to reduce their predation risk when co-occurring with cats.

Implications

Our study highlighted how predator and prey spatial and temporal interactions, and habitat cover and complexity (ecological refuges), may influence the ability for native prey to coexist with invasive predators.

We encourage more consideration and investigation of these factors, with the aim of facilitating more native species to persist with invasive predators or be reintroduced outside of predator-free sanctuaries, exclosures and island safe havens.

Miritis V, Rendall AR, Doherty TS, Coetsee AL, Ritchie EG (2020) Living with the enemy: a threatened prey species coexisting with feral cats on a fox-free island. Wildlife Research PDF DOI

Moon phase and nocturnal activity of native Australian mammals

Authors: Grant D Linley, Yvette Pauligk, Courtney Marneweck, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Australian Mammology

Abstract

Moon phase and variation in ambient light conditions can influence predator and prey behaviour. Nocturnal predators locate prey visually, and prey may adjust their activity to minimise their predation risk. Understanding how native mammals in Australia respond to varying phases of the moon and cloud cover (light) enhances knowledge of factors affecting species’ survival and inference regarding ecological and population survey data.

Over a two-year period within a fenced conservation reserve, in south-eastern Australia, with reintroduced native marsupial predator and prey species (eastern barred bandicoot, southern brown bandicoot, long-nosed potoroo, rufous bettong, Tasmanian pademelon, brush-tailed rock-wallaby, red-necked wallaby, eastern quoll, spotted-tailed quoll, and naturally occurring swamp wallaby, common brushtail possum, common ringtail possum), we conducted monthly spotlight surveys during different moon phases (full, half and new moon).

We found an interaction between cloud cover and moon phase, and an interaction of the two depending on the mammal size and class. Increased activity of prey species corresponded with periods of increasing cloud cover. Predators and medium-sized herbivores were more active during times of low illumination.

Our findings suggest that moon phase affects the nocturnal activity of mammal species and that, for prey species, there might be trade-offs between predation risk and foraging. Our findings have implications for: ecological survey design and interpretation of results for mammal populations across moon phases, understanding predator and prey behaviour and interactions in natural and modified (artificial lighting) ecosystems, and potential nocturnal niche partitioning of species.

Linley GD, Pauligk Y, Marneweck C, Ritchie EG (2020) Moon phase and nocturnal activity of native Australian mammals. Australian Mammalogy PDF DOI

On the right track: placement of camera traps on roads improves detection of predators and shows non-target impacts of feral cat baiting

Authors: Michael L Wysong, Gwenllian D Iacona, Leonie E Valentine, Keith Morris, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Wildlife Research

Abstract

Context

To understand the ecological consequences of predator management, reliable and accurate methods are needed to survey and detect predators and the species with which they interact.

Recently, poison baits have been developed specifically for lethal and broad-scale control of feral cats in Australia. However, the potential non-target effects of these baits on other predators, including native apex predators (dingoes), and, in turn, cascading effects on lower trophic levels (large herbivores), are poorly understood.

Aims

We examined the effect that variation in camera trapping-survey design has on detecting dingoes, feral cats and macropodids, and how different habitat types affect species occurrences. We then examined how a feral cat poison baiting event influences the occupancy of these sympatric species.

Method

We deployed 80 remotely triggered camera traps over the 2,410-km² Matuwa Indigenous Protected Area, in the semiarid rangelands of Western Australia, and used single-season site-occupancy models to calculate detection probabilities and occupancy for our target species before and after baiting.

Key results

Cameras placed on roads were ~60 times more likely to detect dingoes and feral cats than were off-road cameras, whereas audio lures designed to attract feral cats had only a slight positive effect on detection for all target species.

Habitat was a significant factor affecting the occupancy of dingoes and macropodids, but not feral cats, with both species being positively associated with open woodlands.

Poison baiting to control feral cats did not significantly reduce their occupancy but did so for dingoes, whereas macropodid occupancy increased following baiting and reduced dingo occupancy.

Conclusions

Camera traps on roads greatly increase the detection probabilities for predators, whereas audio lures appear to add little or no value to increasing detection for any of the species we targeted.

Poison baiting of an invasive mesopredator appeared to negatively affect a non-target, native apex predator, and, in turn, may have resulted in increased activity of large herbivores.

Implications

Management and monitoring of predators must pay careful attention to survey design, and lethal control of invasive mesopredators should be approached cautiously so as to avoid potential unintended negative ecological consequences (apex-predator suppression and herbivore release).

Wysong ML, Iacona GD, Valentine LE, Morris K, Ritchie EG (2020) On the right track: placement of camera traps on roads improves detection of predators and shows non-target impacts of feral cat baiting. Wildlife Research PDF DOI

Space use and habitat selection of an invasive mesopredator and sympatric, native apex predator

Authors: Michael L Wysong, Bronwyn A Hradsky, Gwenllian D Iacona, Leonie E Valentine, Keith Morris, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Movement Ecology

Abstract

Background

Where mesopredators co-exist with dominant apex predators, an understanding of the factors that influence their habitat and space use can provide insights that help guide wildlife conservation and pest management actions.

A predator’s habitat use is defined by its home range, which is influenced by its selection or avoidance of habitat features and intra- and inter-specific interactions within the landscape. These are driven by both innate and learned behaviour, operating at different spatial scales.

We examined the seasonal home ranges and habitat selection of actively-managed populations of a native apex predator (dingo Canis dingo) and invasive mesopredator (feral cat Felis catus) in semi-arid Western Australia to better understanding their sympatric landscape use, potential interactions, and to help guide their management.

Methods

We used kernel density estimates to characterise the seasonal space use of dingoes and feral cats, investigate inter- and intra-species variation in their home range extent and composition, and examine second-order habitat selection for each predator. Further, we used discrete choice modelling and step selection functions to examine the difference in third-order habitat selection across several habitat features.

Results

The seasonal home ranges of dingoes were on average 19.5 times larger than feral cats. Feral cat seasonal home ranges typically included a larger proportion of grasslands than expected relative to availability in the study site, indicating second-order habitat selection for grasslands.

In their fine-scale movements (third-order habitat selection), both predators selected for roads, hydrological features (seasonal intermittent streams, seasonal lakes and wetlands), and high vegetation cover. Dingoes also selected strongly for open woodlands, whereas feral cats used open woodlands and grasslands in proportion to availability.

Management recommendations

Based on these results, and in order to avoid unintended negative ecological consequences (e.g. mesopredator release) that may stem from non-selective predator management, we recommend that feral cat control focuses on techniques such as trapping and shooting that are specific to feral cats in areas where they overlap with apex predators (dingoes), and more general techniques such as poison baiting where they are segregated.

Wysong ML, Hradsky BA, Iacona GD, Valentine LE, Morris K, Ritchie EG (2020) Space use and habitat selection of an invasive mesopredator and sympatric, native apex predator. Movement Ecology PDF DOI

The Conversation: How you can help – not harm – wild animals recovering from bushfires

Building one of these watering pods can help thirsty wildlife, but it must be checked for safety and hygiene, and refilled regularly. Image credits: Arid Recovery

By Marissa Parrott (University of Melbourne), Dale Nimmo (Charles Sturt University) and Euan Ritchie (Deakin University).

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Since July last year, bushfires have burned more than 7.7 million hectares of southeast Australia, putting many threatened species at increased risk of extinction.

Now that fires have been extinguished in some areas, surviving wildlife face other challenges, such as a lack of food, clean water and shelter, and more exposure to invasive predators.

Australians have helped raise millions of dollars to support Australia’s imperilled wildlife, such as to set up triage centres and evacuate threatened species like eastern bristlebirds and Macquarie perch.

But beyond the vital role of providing financial support, here are a few simple things individuals can do – and avoid – to help our native wildlife recover.

Animals need fresh water, but not from a bottle

Photos of well-meaning people offering water from bottles to animals, especially thirsty koalas, often go viral online. But this is not a safe way to help koalas.

Animals must be allowed to drink water themselves, rather than us pouring water into their mouths. Animals, such as koalas, can’t drink quickly and poured water can fill their lungs, leading to potentially fatal aspiration pneumonia.

Still, providing safe, fresh drinking water is one crucial and practical way we can help them as summer grinds on.

This is particularly important since recent storms have washed ash, sediment and chemicals from burnt infrastructure into waterways, contaminating many catchments.

Water should be stationed at ground level, in a shaded location safe from predators, and in trees for birds and tree-dwelling species like possums, gliders and koalas. Check out DIY guides for building drinking fountains, or “watering pods”, for wildlife.

Sticks and rocks should be placed in the water to allow small species, such as reptiles, to climb out if they fall in. Water must be checked and changed regularly to ensure hygiene and avoid the spread of disease. And pets must be kept away from these locations (especially cats).

What to do if you spot injured wildlife by the road

Authorities are searching the fire grounds for injured animals, and the public is reminded to avoid these areas until they’re confirmed as safe to enter.

But if you happen upon an injured survivor, what should you do?

First of all, call government agencies or trained wildlife rescuers, who can assist any injured wildlife.

Many animals may be in pain and frightened and some, including kangaroos, koalas and wombats, are potentially dangerous if approached. In urgent cases, such as when an animal is in obvious distress or has clear injuries, some animals can be carefully caught and wrapped in a towel, then placed in a well-ventilated, dark and secure box for quiet transport to wildlife veterinary hospitals for care.

Sadly, many animals are hit by cars during fires when they’re disoriented and panicked, and so it’s important to slow down in such areas.

You can also check animals found by roads for injuries and surviving young in pouches, and call authorities to assist. But always be careful of traffic when attending to animals on roadsides, and help other drivers be aware of you by putting hazard lights on and wearing bright clothes.

Don’t feed native wildlife, especially not peanut butter mixes

With so much vegetation burned away, supplementary feeding has gained attention following fires in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

But feeding wildlife without expert advice and legal approval can do more harm than good.

Feeding inappropriate foods like processed foods, over-feeding, providing unhygienic foods or food stations, and attracting predators to food stations, can all be fatal for native wildlife.

Even some foods suggested online, such as bait balls (peanut butter mixes), can cause gastrointestinal issues for wildlife, potentially killing them. Similar issues can arise if wildlife are given some types of hay, vegetables, seeds, and fruits.

Supplementary feeding isn’t advised unless habitat and sources of food have been completely destroyed, and is only appropriate as a short-term emergency intervention until natural resources recover.

But leave it up to the experts and government agencies, which provide nutritionally suitable, specially developed and monitored food in extreme cases.

Somewhere to run and hide

In some cases, fire may mean native animals are more prone to predators killing and eating them. And, depending on the habitat, it may take months or even years for plants and animals’ homes to recover sufficiently to provide safety once again.

However, new approaches – such as building artificial shelters out of fencing wire and shade cloth – may help to buy species time, keeping small mammals, reptiles and other potential prey safe from hungry mouths. This could occur both on private and public land.

Show wildlife the money

Caring for wildlife after fires, whether they’re injured or have lost their homes, is a marathon, not a sprint. And given the scale of these fires, our wild neighbours need our increased support.

Often, the most helpful thing people can do is raise and donate funds to organisations, including Zoos Victoria and the Ecological Society of Australia.

Some wildife species, such as bristlebirds, corroboree frogs, and mountain pygmy-possums, are being pushed to the brink of extinction and may need long-term captive breeding and release programs, or investment in active management of wild populations (such as the newly constructed feral predator-free area for Kangaroo Island dunnarts).

We can all help to make a difference and protect our remarkable and unique wildlife that so desperately needs our help.The Conversation

After the catastrophe: a blueprint for a conservation response to large-scale ecological disaster

Authors: Chris Dickman, Don Driscoll, Stephen Garnett, David Keith, Sarah Legge, David Lindenmayer, Martine Maron, April Reside, Euan Ritchie, James Watson, Brendan Wintle, and John Woinarski

The wildfires that afflicted Australia in the summer of 2019-2020 was ecological disaster at enormous scale, and without comparable precedent. With escalating global climate change, such large-scale ecological catastrophes are likely to become more widespread and frequent. Here, we describe a blueprint for conservation responses to these wildfires, to document the challenge and attempted solutions to this particular event and as a potential template for dealing with comparable future events.

The purpose of this report, published as part of the Threatened Species Recovery Hub, is to frame a comprehensive set of linked responses to large-scale impacts for conservation across immediate to longer time frames, in order to best achieve the recovery of affected species, ecosystems and ecological health.

Dickman C, Driscoll D, Garnett S, Keith D, Legge S, Lindenmayer D, Maron M, Reside A, Ritchie EG, Watson J, Wintle B, Woinarski J (2020) After the catastrophe: a blueprint for a conservation response to large-scale ecological disaster. Threatened Species Recovery Hub PDF LINK

The Conversation: Hunter, hunted: when the world catches on fire, how do predators respond?

Some predators, including red foxes, move into burnt areas after fires pass through. Image credit: Alexandre Roux via Flickr

By Euan Ritchie (Deakin University), Ayesha Tulloch (University of Sydney), Dale Nimmo (Charles Sturt University), Tim Doherty (Deakin University) and William Geary (Deakin University).

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

2019 might well be remembered as the year the world caught fire. Some 2.9 million hectares of eastern Australia have been incinerated in the past few months, an area roughly the same size as Belgium. Fires in the Amazon, the Arctic, and California captured global attention.

As climate change continues, large, intense, and severe fires will become more common. But what does this mean for the animals living in fire-prone environments?

Our new research, published recently in the Journal of Animal Ecology, looked at studies from around the world to identify how predators respond to fire.

We found some species seem to benefit from fires, others appear to be vulnerable, and some seem indifferent. In a changing climate, it’s urgent we understand how fires affect predators – and hence potentially their prey –in order to keep ecosystems healthy.

Predators: the good and the bad

Large predators, like wolves and lions, often play important roles in ecosystems, regulating food webs by reducing the numbers or changing the behaviour of herbivores and smaller predators. Many large predators are in dire straits within their native range, while introduced predators, such as feral cats and red foxes, have spread to new regions, where they have devastated native wildlife .

Fires can offer new opportunities as well as problems to predators. Some predators take advantage of charred, more open landscapes to hunt vulnerable prey; others rely on thick vegetation to launch an ambush.

But until now, we have not known which predators are drawn to fire, which are repelled by it, and which don’t care either way. Synthesising information on how different kinds of predators (for example, large or small, pursuit or ambush) respond to fire is vital for both the conservation of top predators and to help protect native prey from introduced predators.

Some like it hot

Our research reviewed studies from around the world to identify how different vertebrate predators (birds, mammals and reptiles) respond to fire in different ecosystems.

We found 160 studies on the response of 188 predator species to fire, including wolves, coyotes, foxes, cats, hawks, owls, goannas and snakes, amongst others. The studies came from 20 different countries, although most were from North America or Australia, and focused on canine and feline species.

Some predators seem to like fire: they are more abundant, or spend more time in, recently burnt areas than areas that escape fire. Our review found red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) mostly responded positively to fire and become more active in burned areas.

Raptors have even been observed in Northern Australia carrying burning sticks, helping to spread fire and targeting prey as they flee the fire.

For other predators, fire is bad news. Following Californian wildfires, numbers of eastern racer snakes fell in burnt areas. Likewise, lions avoid recently burned areas, because they rely on dense vegetation from which to ambush prey.

The authors of the papers we reviewed thought food availability, vegetation cover, and competition with other predators were the most important things affecting species’ responses to fire.

But perhaps more surprising was that most species, including bobcats and the striped skunk, appeared largely unaffected by fire. Of the affected species, some (such as spotted owls) responded differently to fire in different places.

Overall, we found it is difficult to predict how a predator species will respond to fire.

We still have a lot to learn

Our results show while many predators appear to adapt to the changes that fires bring about, some species are impacted by fire, both negatively and positively. The problem is that, with a few exceptions, we will struggle to know how a given fire will affect a predator species without local knowledge. This means environmental managers need to monitor the local outcomes of fire management, such as fuel reduction burns.

There may be situations in which predator management needs to be coupled with fire management to help prevent native wildlife becoming fox food after fire. There has even been trials to see if artificial shelters can help protect native wildlife from introduced predators after fire.

Getting our knowledge base right

One thing that has hampered our research is the lack of contextual information in many studies. No two fires are the same – they differ in size, intensity, severity, and season – but these details are often absent. The literature is also biased towards dog-like and cat species, and there are few studies on the response of predators to fire in Africa, Asia, and South America.

It is important to note that some predator responses to fire may be overlooked due to the way experiments were carried out, or because monitoring happened too long after the fire.

Unifying how fire, predator numbers and environmental features are recorded would help future studies predict how predators might react to different types of fires in various situations.

As wildfires become more frequent and severe under climate change, understanding how fire intensity and frequency shapes predator populations and their prey will be critical for effective and informed ecosystem management and conservation.
The Conversation

The Conversation: Double trouble as feral horse numbers gallop past 25,000 in the Australian Alps

Feral horses are a growing problem for the NSW government. Image credit: Constantin Stanciu via Shutterstock

By Don Driscoll (Deakin University), David M Watson (Charles Sturt University), and Euan Ritchie (Deakin University).

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Feral horse numbers have more than doubled in the past five years in the Australian Alps, according to results just released from the Australian Alps Feral Horse Aerial Survey. In one of the three survey blocks, North Kosciuszko, feral horse numbers have risen from an estimated 3,255 in 2014 to 15,687 in 2019, a near five-fold increase.

Scientists warned the government that very high numbers of horses would be the inevitable consequence of its inaction over horse management.

With no horses removed in 2017 or 2018, and only 99 removed this year, the population has been allowed to grow at about 23% per year, close to the maximum of about 25% known for feral horses.

More than just allowing numbers to increase, the NSW parliament legislated to protect feral horses within Kosciuszko National Park, effectively prioritising the preservation of horse populations over native alpine species and environmental values, where they are in conflict.

This was despite the strong advice from scientists, and amid substantial controversy around the origins and timing of the bill.

A potentially fatal feral horse problem

High feral horse numbers forced the closure of the popular Blue Waterholes campground in November, after substantial risks and several injuries to visitors were reported. Freedom of information requests were needed to bring to light crashes between cars and feral horses in Kosciuszko.

Despite the NSW government trying to keep this information from reaching the public, several incidents of feral horses being struck by vehicles have now been reported.

The community group Reclaim Kosci has warned it is only a matter of time before someone is killed in a collision with a feral horse unless numbers are drastically and rapidly reduced.

Besides impacts on people, the lack of effective feral horse policy in NSW has now set the stage for another mass animal welfare disaster.

With an estimated 25,318 feral horses distributed across the surveyed area (more than 7,400 square kilometres) of the Australian Alps, many thousands of horses will face starvation when the region next burns. This is predictable, inevitable and tragically also completely avoidable had effective feral horse control been implemented.

The prolonged drought hitting Australia has worsened the impacts of horses in the high country. Plants already struggling to survive are being trampled and grazed, and areas around standing water resemble feedlots.

These impacts will worsen over summer, both for the national park and the horses themselves, with herds suffering in the heat and struggling to survive. Horses starved to death along the snowy river in Kosciuszko in 2018.

Now many more animals are at risk of this fate because scientifically-supported solutions have been dismissed by NSW deputy premier John Barilaro.

Natural wildlife threatened

Evidence presented at the Kosciuszko Science Conference and research published earlier this year showed how a broad range of Alpine species and ecosystems were being affected by feral horses. These effects will now be more intense and occur across more of Australia’s ecologically sensitive and biodiverse alpine environments.

For example, the native broad toothed rat depends on dense vegetation along watercourses. With feral horses eating out or trampling plants along streams, these delightful, rotund fur-balls may lose their homes, and hence be more exposed to the elements and predators.

Right now, feral horses are reducing the habitat for these animals, causing already threatened populations to become smaller and more fragmented. As these small populations blink into extinction we can expect widespread losses across the national park.

Corroboree frogs will now be under enormous pressure. We already know feral horses destroy the wetlands these iconic yellow-striped black frogs depend on for breeding. This destruction will likely now impact many more swamps, reducing breeding success and reducing options for reintroduction of this critically endangered frog.

Another species, the Stocky Galaxias, teeters on the brink of extinction. This small native fish now only lives in a 3km stretch of stream in Kosciuszko National Park. Feral horses trample the river banks and rip out vegetation that causes silt to accumulate in the stream.

This is disastrous for the fish, which breed beneath boulders in the stream. If silt fills up the gaps beneath boulders, there is no place for the fish to lay eggs.

The high numbers of feral horses in Kosciuszko mean this process of stream destruction will likely worsen, potentially hastening the demise of this species unique to Kosciuszko National Park.

New management plan needed

Hope for change now rests with the new feral horse management plan being developed by the recently established Kosciuszko National Park Wild Horse Community Advisory Panel and the Wild Horse Scientific Advisory Panel. The community panel has expressed interest in working with the scientific panel, and such collaboration will be essential for making progress.

These committees will need to consider all options for resolving this human safety, animal welfare, and ecological crisis. Although trapping is crueller and many times more expensive than aerial culling, if the trapping effort is substantially ramped up across the park, it could potentially limit population growth and reduce horse numbers.

Aerial culling, despite being the most cost-effective and humane method to lower the horse population size and reduce impacts, is misrepresented by the pro-brumby lobby and sections of the media as cruel, and hence has been deemed unacceptable. These costs, and animal welfare and political trade-offs, must be carefully considered by the committees.

The scientific committee said the draft plan for action will be open for comment in February 2020 to meet NSW environment minister Matt Kean’s deadline for a final plan by May 1, 2020. This rapid timeframe is absolutely essential, as the increase of feral horses in the Alpine National Park will not abate any time soon without urgent and substantial control measures.
The Conversation

Predator responses to fire: A global systematic review and meta‐analysis

Authors: William L Geary, Tim S Doherty, Dale G Nimmo, Ayesha I T Tulloch, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Journal of Animal Ecology

Abstract

Knowledge of how disturbances such as fire shape habitat structure and composition, and affect animal interactions, is fundamental to ecology and ecosystem management. Predators also exert strong effects on ecological communities, through top‐down regulation of prey and competitors, which can result in trophic cascades. Despite their ubiquity, ecological importance and potential to interact with fire, our general understanding of how predators respond to fire remains poor, hampering ecosystem management.

To address this important knowledge gap, we conducted a systematic review and meta‐analysis of the effects of fire on terrestrial, vertebrate predators worldwide. We found 160 studies spanning 1978–2018. There were 36 studies with sufficient information for meta‐analysis, from which we extracted 96 effect sizes (Hedge’s g) for 67 predator species relating to changes in abundance indices, occupancy or resource selection in burned and unburned areas, or before and after fire.

Studies spanned geographic locations, taxonomic families, and study designs, but most were located in North America and Oceania (59% and 24%, respectively), and largely focussed on felids (24%) and canids (25%). Half (50%) of the studies reported responses to wildfire, and nearly one third concerned prescribed (management) fires.

There were no clear, general responses of predators to fire, nor relationships with geographic area, biome or life history traits (e.g. body mass, hunting strategy and diet). Responses varied considerably between species. Analysis of species for which at least three effect sizes had been reported in the literature revealed that red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) mostly responded positively to fire (e.g. higher abundance in burned compared to unburned areas) and eastern racers (Coluber constrictor) negatively, with variances overlapping zero only slightly for both species.

Our systematic review and meta‐analysis revealed strong variation in predator responses to fire, and major geographic and taxonomic knowledge gaps. Varied responses of predator species to fire likely depend on ecosystem context. Consistent reporting of ongoing monitoring and management experiments is required to improve understanding of the mechanisms driving predator responses to fire, and any broader effects (e.g. trophic interactions). The divergent responses of species in our study suggest that adaptive, context‐specific management of predator‐fire relationships is required.

Geary WL, Doherty TS, Nimmo DG, Tulloch AIT, Ritchie EG (2019) Predator responses to fire: A global systematic review and meta‐analysis. Journal of Animal Ecology PDF DOI 

Digging up the dirt: quantifying the effects on soil of a translocated ecosystem engineer

Authors: Lauren M Halstead, Duncan R Sutherland, Leonie E Valentine, Anthony R Rendall, Amy L Coetsee, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Austral Ecology

Abstract

Digging mammals are often considered ecosystem engineers, as they affect important properties of soils and in turn nutrient exchange, vegetation dynamics and habitat quality. Returning such species, and their functions, to areas from where they have been extirpated could help restore degraded landscapes and is increasingly being trialled as a conservation tool.

Studies examining the effects of digging mammals have largely been from arid and semi‐arid environments, with little known about their impacts and importance in mesic systems. To address this knowledge gap, we investigated the ecological role of a recently introduced population of eastern barred bandicoots (Perameles gunnii) on Churchill Island, Victoria, south‐eastern Australia, from which all digging mammals have been lost.

We quantified the annual rate of soil turnover by estimating the number of foraging pits bandicoots created in 100‐m² plots over a 24‐hour period. Foraging pit counts could not be completed in each season, and the overall turnover estimate assumes that autumn/winter months represent turnover rates for the entire year; however, this is likely to fluctuate between seasons. Ten fresh and ten old pits were compared to paired undug control sites to quantify the effect soil disturbance had on soil hydrophobicity, moisture content and soil strength. Plots contained between zero and 64 new foraging pits each day. We estimated that an individual eastern barred bandicoot digs ~487 (95% CI = 416–526) small foraging pits per night, displacing ~13.15 kg (95% CI = 11.2–14.2 kg) of soil, equating to ~400 kg (95% CI = 341–431 kg) of soil in a winter month. Foraging pits were associated with decreased soil compaction and increased soil moisture along the foraging pit profile.

Eastern barred bandicoots likely play an important role in ecosystems through their effects on soil, which adds to an increasing body of knowledge suggesting restoration of ecosystems, via the return of ecosystem engineers and their functions, holds much promise for conserving biodiversity and ecological function.

Halstead LM, Sutherland DR, Valentine LE, Rendall AR, Coetsee AL, Ritchie EG (2019) Digging up the dirt: Quantifying the effects on soil of a translocated ecosystem engineer. Austral Ecology PDF DOI

Constraints on vertebrate range size predict extinction risk

Authors: Thomas M Newsome, Christopher Wolf, Dale G Nimmo, R Keller Kopf, Euan G Ritchie, Felisa A Smith, and William J Ripple

Published in: Global Ecology and Biogeography

Abstract

Aim: The only factor in the fossil record that consistently buffers against extinction risk is large geographical range. We ask whether extant vertebrate species with the smallest geographical range for their body size have a higher extinction risk, and thus whether the lower bound of the modern range–body size relationship could serve as an effective conservation prioritization tool.

Location: Global in scope.

Time period: Modern.

Major taxa studied: Six classes of vertebrates.

Methods: We compiled a database of geographical range, body size and extinction risk for six vertebrate classes (n = 26,076). We characterized the shape of the relationship between geographical range and body size for each class, using 90% and 10% quantile regression to describe the upper and lower bounds, respectively. We then evaluated the degree of extinction vulnerability of species at the lower bound of the regression using generalized linear mixed models. All analyses accounted for phylogenetic dependence between related species.

Results: The relationships between species ranges and body sizes were generally positive at both the upper and the lower bounds, and segmented (nonlinear) relationships were common. Despite this variability, species near the lower boundary of the relationship were more often in higher extinction risk categories, and this remained true when the role of range size in the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red Listing criteria was accounted for.

Main conclusions: Variability in the upper and lower bounds of the range–body size relationship suggests that some classes of vertebrates exhibit combinations of ranges and body sizes that might not reflect historical patterns. Nonetheless, the range–body size relationship remains a reliable and useful predictor of extinction risk, more so than range size does alone. The range–body size relationship could therefore be used to track the trajectories of species towards or away from an extinction threshold and allow the tracking of how different human activities alter the range–body size relationship.

Newsome TM, Wolf C, Nimmo DG, Kopf RK, Ritchie EG, Smith FA, Ripple WJ (2019) Constraints on vertebrate range size predict extinction risk, Global Ecology and Biogeography PDF DOI

Topographic ruggedness and rainfall mediate geographic range contraction of a threatened marsupial predator

Authors: Harry A Moore, Judy A Dunlop, Leonie E Valentine, John C Z Woinarski, Euan G Ritchie, David M Watson, and Dale G Nimmo

Published in: Diversity and Distributions

Abstract

Aim: Species range contractions are increasingly common globally. The niche reduction hypothesis posits that geographic range contractions are often patterned across space owing to heterogeneity in threat impacts and tolerance. We applied the niche reduction hypothesis to the decline of a threatened marsupial predator across northern Australia, the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus).

Location: Northern Australia.

Methods: We assembled a database containing 3,178 historic and contemporary records for northern quolls across the extent of their distribution dating between 1778 and 2019. Based on these records, we estimated changes in the geographic range of the northern quoll using α‐hulls across four main populations. We then examined how range contractions related to factors likely to mediate the exposure, susceptibility, or tolerance of northern quolls to threats.

Result: The extent of range contractions showed an east–west gradient, most likely reflecting the timing of spread of introduced cane toads (Rhinella marina). There were clear changes in environmental characteristics within the contemporary compared to the historic geographic range, with the most substantial occurring in populations that have suffered the greatest range contractions. The contemporary range is comprised of higher quality habitats (measured using environmental niche models), characterized by higher topographical ruggedness and annual rainfall, and reduced distance to water, compared to the historic range.

Main conclusions: Changes to range and niche likely reflect the capacity of complex habitats to ameliorate threats (namely predation and altered fire regimes), and access to resources that increase threat tolerance. This study highlights the multivariate nature of ecological refuges and the importance of high‐quality habitats for the persistence of species exposed to multiple threats. Our methods provide a useful framework which can be applied across taxa in providing valuable insight to management.

Moore HA, Dunlop JA, Valentine LE, Woinarski JCZ, Ritchie EG, Watson DM, Nimmo DG (2019) Topographic ruggedness and rainfall mediate geographic range contraction of a threatened marsupial predator. Diversity and Distributions PDF DOI

Life in linear habitats: the movement ecology of an endangered mammal in a peri‐urban landscape

Authors: Sarah J Maclagan, Terry Coates, Bronwyn A Hradsky, Ryan Butryn, and Euan G Ritchie

Published in: Animal Conservation

Abstract

Animal movement can be significantly altered in human‐dominated landscapes such as urban and peri‐urban areas, where habitat is often fragmented and/or linear. Knowledge regarding how wildlife respond to anthropogenic change is vital for informing conservation efforts in such landscapes, including the design of nature reserves and wildlife corridors.

To better understand how threatened species persist and behave within human‐dominated landscapes, we examined the home range and space use of the nationally endangered southern brown bandicoot Isoodon obesulus obesulus in peri‐urban Melbourne, Australia’s second‐largest city. Specifically, we examined whether:

  • bandicoots were confined to linear strips of remnant vegetation or also made use of the broader highly modified landscape matrix;
  • the configuration of the linear vegetated strips affected home range shape; and
  • home range area differed between bandicoots living in linear strips and those in larger remnant habitat patches.

We found that:

  • 71% of adult males and 33% of adult females used the matrix, but non‐dispersing juveniles were entirely confined to the linear strips; males also travelled greater distances into the matrix (away from the vegetated strips) than females;
  • bandicoots had longer home ranges in narrower strips and males had longer home ranges than females; and
  • home range area for both sexes was smaller in linear strips than has been recorded in other studies in larger remnant habitats.

Our study highlights the importance of retaining narrow, fragmented and modified vegetation to accommodate threatened biodiversity within human‐dominated landscapes, but suggests the surrounding matrix may also offer important resources for adaptable species, such as bandicoots.

Supporting off‐reserve conservation of biodiversity in novel ecosystems is increasingly pertinent in our rapidly urbanizing world.

Maclagan SJ, Coates T, Hradsky BA, Butryn R, Ritchie EG (2019) Life in linear habitats: the movement ecology of an endangered mammal in a peri‐urban landscape. Animal Conservation PDF DOI

Restricted‐area culls and red fox abundance: Are effects a matter of time and place?

Authors: Jim‐Lino Kämmerle, Euan G Ritchie, and Ilse Storch

Published in: Conservation Science and Practice

Abstract

Predators are often culled to benefit prey, but in many cases this conservation goal is not achieved or results remain unknown.

The red fox (Vulpes vulpes) is a predator of global significance, and an invasive species in some regions. Red fox culls intended to benefit prey are often restricted to small areas, and effectiveness is rarely sufficiently evaluated.

Given the economic, ecological, social, and welfare issues associated with lethal predator control, there is a strong need to assess the effects of spatiotemporal variation in culling intensity on red fox abundance.

We surveyed red fox populations in fragmented forests of south‐western Germany and related indices of local fox abundance to culling data, predicted landscape‐scale fox abundance, and other covariates. We tested whether restricted‐area culling was associated with local reductions in fox abundance, and examined how this relationship changed over time.

Local fox abundance was temporarily reduced in spring, following winter culls. However, the effect was minor and fox populations had compensated for the reductions at the latest by autumn. Restricted‐area culling therefore likely failed to sustain effects on fox abundance throughout the period most relevant for conservation (i.e., the reproductive period of the target prey species).

To be effective as a conservation tool, culling will therefore require explicit spatiotemporal coordination matching the biology of predators and target prey.

Kämmerle J, Ritchie EG, Storch I (2019) Restricted‐area culls and red fox abundance: Are effects a matter of time and place? Conservation Science and Practice PDF DOI

Science communication in a post‐truth world: promises and pitfalls

Authors: R Keller Kopf, Dale G Nimmo, Euan G Ritchie, and Jen K Martin

Published in: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

The mass decline of biodiversity in this post-truth era means that reliable and influential conservation science communication is more important than ever.

In this era, truths and lies are increasingly difficult to distinguish, posing a major challenge to science communication. As a result, conservation scientists and managers are grappling with new ways of countering misinformation and sharing factual information.

Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Instagram, blogs, online news outlets, webcomics, and satirical articles all provide communication opportunities, but we still have a poor understanding of which of these are most effective, and when and where to best communicate science…

Kopf RK, Nimmo DG, Ritchie EG, Martin JK (2019) Science communication in a post-truth world: promises and pitfalls. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment PDF DOI

The Conversation: Academia can help humans and large carnivores coexist

In Romania, wolves live in the same landscapes as shepherds. Image credit: Vlada Cech via Shutterstock.

By Euan Ritchie (Deakin University), Abi Vanak (University of KwaZulu-Natal), Benjamin Scheele (Australian National University), Laurentiu Rozylowicz, and Tibor Hartel

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Bears, wolves, lions and other top predators have a long history of conflict with people – they can threaten our safety and kill livestock.

In our recent study, published in Conservation Biology, we outline how conventional conservation approaches are unlikely to lead to effective coexistence between humans and large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes.

This wicked problem encompasses public safety, agriculture, conservation, animal welfare, and more. Each facet is commonly managed by a different institution working in isolation – often failing to reflect the reality of our highly connected world.

Academia can help foster better institutional arrangements, especially in places like Romania, India and Brazil, where there are substantial populations of people and large carnivores in shared spaces.

In Romania, for instance, bears and wolves live in the same places used by shepherds and their livestock. Guardian dogs typically help protect livestock from being attacked.

Similarly, Australia’s own dingo occurs across agricultural and pastoral regions, with sentiments ranging from protected native species to disliked pest.

Why institutions fail carnivore-human relationships

From bears in Romania to dingoes in Australia, large carnivores are found in an array of places. This means they regularly affect the interests of a range of institutions, from agriculture to forestry.

But the current arrangements are poorly suited to facilitate a peaceful coexistence between humans and large carnivores.

Typically, institutions focus on a small subset of concerns. Forestry and agricultural sectors, for instance, may not feel responsible for large carnivore conservation because they are primarily interested in timber and agricultural production.

On the other hand, institutions for transport, energy and border security might be indifferent towards large carnivores. But they can negatively affect these animals if they put up barriers restricting predator movement and inappropriately handle roadkill.

These compartmentalised, and often conflicting, institutions are poorly suited to helping wildlife, especially when large carnivores, such as leopards, wolves and bears, live in human-dominated regions.

A role for academia

Academia has solutions to offer.

Most environment-related professionals, like foresters, wildlife managers and conservation biologists, are trained in a range of academic institutions. Unfortunately, they are often taught narrowly within their sector or discipline.

However, all these future professionals passing through the same institutions provides a great opportunity for a broad change in how we approach difficult conservation challenges and conflict with wildlife.

There are at least three ways in which academia could help address the challenges of human and large carnivore coexistence:

1. Break down the silos

Academic institutions need to create special centres to better support teaching and research across different disciplines.

Conservation – and, on a broader level, how humans should relate to the natural world – cannot be siloed away in wildlife management courses.

2. Broaden the view

We need to actively foster a broader perspective that does not see large carnivores as an “enemy”, while still safeguarding human life. This is a complex and multifaceted challenge.

By working across disciplines, universities have the chance to actively foster this broader perspective. This may seem like a nebulous point, but the collapse of species around the world has highlighted how ineffective our current approach to conservation is. We need to move beyond tinkering around the edges of our extinction crisis.

Conservation policy is already equipped to address individual targets such as regulating carnivore populations and legally protecting species. It is the larger aim of changing norms, challenging values and ensuring all these various institutions are pulling in the same direction that we need to tackle – a tactic called the “leverage points approach”.

3. Work outside the academy

Academia could support existing collaborations. When people with shared interests come together to pool knowledge and address a particular issue, we call it a community of practice. Academia can contribute to these communities by offering the skills and expertise of its graduates, but also broader social and industry connections (where required), knowledge sharing, collaborative research, education and technological innovation.

We need big carnivores and they need us

Large carnivores are critical for the health of ecosystems globally, and we need to provide them with enough space and tolerance to survive.

The ongoing controversy regarding the management of the dingo, Australia’s largest land-based predator (aside from humans), provides a perfect test case for this new approach to managing human-wildlife conflict.

If we can achieve more harmonious relations with the world’s top predators, many of the myriad other species that coexist with them are also likely to benefit from both better habitat management and conservation and the important ecological effects large carnivores can have, such as keeping herbivore and smaller predator numbers in check. This can be a positive step towards addressing Earth’s mass extinction crisis.

The authors would like to thank John Linnell, Senior Research Scientist at the Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, for his contribution to this article.
The Conversation

The Conversation: This centuries-old river red gum is a local legend – here’s why it’s worth fighting for

By Euan Ritchie, Deakin University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

In Dr Seuss’s The Lorax, his titular character famously said: “I am the Lorax. I speak for the trees. I speak for the trees, for the trees have no tongues.”

In the midst of a global extinction crisis, the Lorax’s call to preserve what is precious couldn’t be more apt. The greatest threat to the survival of species globally continues to be habitat destruction and modification.

A potential and local victim of this ongoing environmental catastrophe is a single tree, and a tree I have a deep personal connection with. The tree I refer to is Bulleen’s iconic 300-year-old river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis).

To me, this tree has been a constant in my life. While everything else has changed around me, it has stood there, solid, just as solid as its red gum fibres are known to be.

As a child, I fondly remember looking up at this tree in awe, as we’d often stop at the nearby service station on a hot summer’s day to buy a cold drink or ice-cream on the way to Saturday sport, the nearby Birrarung (Yarra River), or my grandmother’s house.

Bulleen’s majestic river red gum

It’s estimated to be approximately 20 metres in height with a canopy spread of 17 metres. And its trunk measures a whopping two metres across.

The tree is thought to be the oldest remnant of a once substantial red gum forest, and was saved by a local resident when the rest of the area was cleared for the construction of a service station.

It now faces destruction, as it is within the preferred path of construction for Victoria’s North East link.

While the measurements of this tree are impressive, the splendour and value for me is that it has survived for so long and, in more recent times, against tremendous odds.

Surviving against all odds

The Bulleen red gum stands beside one of Melbourne’s busiest roads and the immediate area is covered with concrete and bitumen. The tree’s roots and health have therefore been challenged for a long time, and yet this massive red gum stands, as if in defiance of the modern world and the development that has encircled it.

Since this tree has survived for so long, it undoubtedly holds a special connection with so many: the Wurundjeri-willam people of the Kulin Nation, members of Australia’s famed Heidelberg school of artists who lived and worked in the near vicinty, everyday commuters that have driven or walked by or stopped to admire it, or the war verteran Nevin Phillips who once apparently defended it with his rifle against it being chainsawed.

Further proof of the value of this tree to so many is that it was awarded The National Trust of Australia’s (Victoria) 2019 Victorian Tree of the Year.

Why we must speak for and save old trees

I grew up near this tree and, like the Lorax, I would like to speak for it.
Trees as old as the Bulleen river red gum are now increasingly rare in our world, and beyond their strong personal and cultural values, including in some places as Aboriginal birthing sites, they are tremendously important for other reasons as well.

These trees provide shade and help keep our cities cooler, improve our mental health and wellbeing, and store considerable amounts of carbon aiding our fight against climate change.

Perhaps most importantly, under their bark and in their cracks and hollows, they provide homes for many of Australia’s precious but increasingly imperilled native wildlife, including bats, birds, possums and gliders, snakes and lizards, insects and spiders.

These homes are prime wildlife real estate, especially in our big cities, where such large old trees are vanishingly rare but where considerable wildlife, common and threatened, still persists. And yet more could survive with a helping hand from us.

As cities like Melbourne continue to grow around the world, there will be more and more cases where arguments of progress are used to justify the further destruction of what nature remains. But progress shouldn’t come at any cost, and in the case of preserving iconic and valuable trees such as Bulleen’s river red gum, it would seem there’s more than enough reasons to ensure this tree’s life and its many values continue.

Perhaps again the wise sage, the Lorax, says it best. “Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, Nothing is going to get better. It’s not.”
The Conversation

Threat webs: reframing the co-occurrence and interactions of threats to biodiversity

Authors: William L Geary, Dale G Nimmo, Tim S Doherty, Euan G Ritchie, and Ayesha IT Tulloch

Published in: Journal of Applied Ecology

Abstract

Interactions between threatening processes and their effects on biodiversity are a major focus of ecological research and management. Threat interactions arise when threats or their effects co‐occur spatially and temporally.

Whether the associations between threats are coincidental or causally linked is poorly understood, but has fundamental impacts on how, when and where threats should be managed. We propose that examining threat co‐occurrence, supplemented by experiments and triangulation of evidence, can help identify when and where threats interact causally, informing pressing biodiversity management goals.

Using case studies, we demonstrate how co‐occurring and interacting threats can be visualised as networks (threat webs) and how this could guide conservation interventions at local, regional and global scales.

Synthesis and applications. Recognising that threats co‐occur and interact as networks, and are potentially driven by multiple agents (e.g. other threats, shared environmental drivers), helps us understand their dynamics and impacts on ecosystems. This greater understanding can help facilitate more targeted, efficient and effective environmental management.

Geary WL, Nimmo DG, Doherty TS, Ritchie EG, Tulloch AIT (2019) Threat webs: reframing the co‐occurrence and interactions of threats to biodiversity. Journal of Applied Ecology PDF DOI